Bold headline: Apple’s next iPhone wave could push record shipments in 2025, IDC projects.
Apple’s newest iPhone lineup has grabbed attention at launch events, and IDC’s forecast suggests a strong year ahead. The research firm expects Apple to ship 247.4 million iPhones in 2025, a little over a 6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the 236 million iPhones Apple sold in 2021 when the iPhone 13 debuted.
IDC attributes the anticipated growth to the “phenomenal” performance of the iPhone 17 series, with China playing a pivotal role. Nabila Popal, IDC’s senior research director, notes that robust demand for iPhone 17 in China is a major driver of Apple’s expected momentum.
It’s important to understand that shipments refer to the number of devices a company delivers to its sales channels (retailers, carriers, and online partners). This metric reflects demand expectations rather than actual sales to end users.
At the iPhone 17 launch in September, investors positioned the series as a critical catalyst for Apple, especially as the company faced intensified competition in China and ongoing questions about its AI strategy amid Android momentum.
IDC also projects a strong year for Apple in China, with shipments rising about 17% year over year in the fourth quarter. This supports a broader market growth forecast of around 3% for the year in China, reversing an earlier view of a 1% decline.
In the Chinese market, local brands such as Huawei have been chipping away at Apple’s share, contributing to a more competitive landscape.
This IDC report follows a Counterpoint Research forecast last week that Apple would outsell Samsung in smartphone shipments in 2025 for the first time in 14 years.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported potential timing shifts for Apple’s next base iPhone model (the iPhone 18), suggesting a possible delay to 2027. If realized, such a delay could impact annual shipment trajectories and may influence 2026 projections, with IDC noting a potential 4.2% drop in shipments next year as a consequence.
Would Apple’s ability to sustain iPhone 17’s momentum into 2026 depend more on China’s market conditions, continued innovation, or shifts in competitive strategy from rivals? Share your thoughts in the comments.
